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ACUS11 KWNS 022135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022135
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-022330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0435 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...FAR
NORTHEAST WYOMING
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 022135Z - 022330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL, IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE THREAT COULD
EXTEND WESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST
WYOMING. WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BELLE FOURCHE, SOUTH DAKOTA, JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST
OF A SURFACE LOW, ALONG AN AXIS OF MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THE LATEST RAP HAS A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, WHERE MLCAPE IS IN THE
2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THE STORMS ARE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY, AND APPEARS TO BE
SUPPORTED BY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP AT RAPID CITY HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS SUGGESTING THAT THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ORGANIZED
ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP FURTHER WEST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING, IF THE CELLS THERE CAN INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
..BROYLES/GUYER.. 07/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...BYZ...
LAT...LON 43790341 44080454 44350522 44620563 44950574 45240567
45520529 45660472 45670387 45660216 45450158 45110138
44640119 44090116 43800145 43670193 43690280 43790341
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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