850
ACUS11 KWNS 022308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022307
SDZ000-NDZ000-030130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 022307Z - 030130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A WEATHER WATCH EXTENSION IN AREA MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA, OR A NEW WATCH COULD NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S F. ALONG THAT CORRIDOR, THE RAP HAS MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000
J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED IN NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA JUST TO THE WEST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS, WITHIN THE
FAR EASTERN PART OF WW 441. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN INTACT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THE STORMS THAT INTENSIFY IN PROXIMITY OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL.
..BROYLES/GUYER.. 07/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 46209935 46850000 47600152 47610234 47390268 47100258
46740228 46180206 45540173 45260128 45150047 45249926
45709901 46209935
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page