047
ACUS01 KWNS 030046
SWODY1
SPC AC 030045
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
VALID 030100Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST IOWA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN KANSAS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS THIS EVENING. MORE ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
..HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS, CLUSTERS OF MULTI-CELL AND SUPERCELLS
ARE ONGOING. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOME SUPERCELLULAR
MODES, LARGE HAIL TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE OUT OF MONTANA AND OR SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
A CLUSTER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING INTO
MINNESOTA/IOWA HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT GUSTS 90-100
MPH. MORE RECENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND 60-70 MPH. IT IS
LIKELY THAT THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS
EVENING. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OAX SAMPLED A LARGE CAPE PROFILE WITH
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.CONFIDENCE IN EXACT EVOLUTION
REMAINS LOW BUT SOME CAM GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A SECONDARY MCS
STRUCTURE MAY MOVE EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA.
GIVEN THE LARGE MLCAPE GRADIENT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA AND A CONTINUED RESERVOIR OF STEEP LOW TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THIS MAY POSE ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND THROUGH THE EVENING.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
A FEW ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO, SOUTHERN NEBRASKA, AND WESTERN KANSAS. THESE HAVE HAD
OCCASIONAL STRONGER MESH CORES AROUND 2 INCHES. THE 00Z SOUNDING
FROM DDC SAMPLED STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AMID LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WITHIN THE NEAR SURFACE
PROFILE. GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR, INVERTED V SOUNDINGS, AND
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY, THESE SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND.
..NORTHEAST
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF QUEBEC. THESE
MAY POSE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
THROUGH THE EVENING. SEE MCD#1455 FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..THORNTON.. 07/03/2026
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