332
ACUS11 KWNS 030051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030051
NEZ000-030145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442...
VALID 030051Z - 030145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE
NEEDED THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA, WHERE MANY OBSERVATION
SITES HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
STRONG INSTABILITY, WITH THE RAP SHOWING MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND
4500 J/KG IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO NEAR 2500 J/KG IN NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA. TO THE WEST OF THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY, A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE. ALONG AND NEAR THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY, THE
RAP HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE, SUGGESTING THAT A
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES.. 07/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 40139832 40799724 41589662 42169654 42469669 42669713
42759800 42559912 42050014 41430059 41020062 40640050
40270008 40039927 40139832
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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