561
ACUS11 KWNS 030148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030147
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-030345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1458
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0847 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AND IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443...
VALID 030147Z - 030345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 1-2
HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE LATE EVENING HOURS, BUT SOME WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR
THE SHORT TERM.
DISCUSSION...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND OF AN MCS HAS BEEN OBSERVED
IN GOES IR IMAGERY AND MRMS ECHO TOPS OVER THE PAST 60-90 MINUTES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN. ADDITIONALLY, A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
CLEARLY EVIDENT IN KFSD REFLECTIVITY/VELOCITY DATA, AND THE KFSD VWP
ONLY SAMPLED AROUND 30-40 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW
KILOMETERS AS THE LINE PASSED. FURTHER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE LINE AS IT BEGINS TO MIGRATE OUT OF THE
REGIONAL BUOYANCY AXIS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.
FARTHER SOUTH, SOME DEGREE OF RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW IS
NOTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHWEST MN. HERE,
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ARE SUPPORTING A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BUOYANCY AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER INHIBITION, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER
RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AN UPSTREAM RAOB FROM OAX
SAMPLED 30-35 KNOT MID-LEVEL WINDS AND SIMILAR EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VALUES, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANY NEW CONVECTION COULD SEE SOME DEGREE
OF ORGANIZATION (THOUGH THIS APPEARS IMPROBABLE BASED ON THE
UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE OUTFLOW). CONSEQUENTLY, A RELATIVELY
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WILL LIKELY RESIDE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MN INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SD/IA. BEYOND THE NEXT FEW HOURS, FURTHER WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS THE BAND OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MIGRATE INTO A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN AND NORTH-CENTRAL IA.
..MOORE.. 07/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 42979672 43029704 43189724 43349735 43529738 43639738
43749701 43749662 43829626 44009606 44299588 44699583
44959580 45079572 45299545 45409505 45369473 45249451
45059432 44739424 44479423 44049423 43709427 43419432
43159459 42979503 42909548 42929616 42979672
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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