416
ACUS11 KWNS 030218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030217
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-030415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0917 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441...
VALID 030217Z - 030415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATE THIS EVENING. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ADDITIONAL WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF WW 441.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NEAR RAPID CITY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAR EASTERN MONTANA. A
MOIST AIRMASS IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS, WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S
F. BECAUSE OF THIS, AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED BY
THE RAP OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHERE MLCAPE IS GENERALLY BETWEEN
1500 TO 3000 J/KG. SCATTERED STORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH A WIND-DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT, ARE ONGOING WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS THE STORMS MOVE
EASTWARD INTO WEAKER INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS LATE THIS
EVENING, THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED. FOR
THIS REASON, ADDITIONAL WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE NOT EXPECTED.
..BROYLES/GUYER.. 07/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...
LAT...LON 44600120 44880044 45390012 46250018 48080083 48830130
49130218 49030350 48700406 47760393 46280332 45000265
44630205 44600120
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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