928
ACUS11 KWNS 030543
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030543
SDZ000-030715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441...
VALID 030543Z - 030715Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL, BOWING STORM CLUSTER IS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SD AS OF 0535 UTC. THIS CLUSTER IS LIKELY SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED, BUT MUCAPE OF NEAR/ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR (AS ANALYZED IN RECENT OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSES) WITHIN A
LOW-LEVEL WARM-ADVECTION REGIME WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THIS CLUSTER
IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. RECENT OBSERVED WIND GUSTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN SUBSEVERE, AND THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE GIVEN THE
DOWNSTREAM LOW-LEVEL STABILITY. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS
CLUSTER. ISOLATED HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE PRIMARILY
LINEAR MODE MAY TEMPER THIS THREAT.
THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY ISOLATED. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR ANY UPTICK IN THE ORGANIZED-SEVERE THREAT (AND ANY
NEED FOR DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE) INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 07/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...
LAT...LON 43590179 43620179 43990177 44280186 44410143 44460070
44400014 44190009 43999999 43810010 43600030 43550104
43590179
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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