463
ACUS48 KWNS 030904
SWOD48
SPC AC 030902
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2026
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
..DISCUSSION
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A MODEST MID-LEVEL RIDGE, ALONG
AN AXIS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, MAY GRADUALLY BECOME SUPPRESSED BY A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE GREAT BASIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AS A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIVE
TROUGH AND EMBEDDED LOW, WITHIN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER LATITUDES, PROGRESS INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS BY NEXT TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY,
BUT ENOUGH SPREAD PERSISTS WITHIN LATEST MODEL OUTPUT TO PRECLUDE 15
PERCENT OR GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
A PRECEDING TROUGH WITHIN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH HUDSON BAY,
ONTARIO, QUEBEC AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES
BY LATE NEXT WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A CORRIDOR OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
COULD SUPPORT INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THE EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL, AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT
COULD POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
OTHERWISE, SEVERE POTENTIAL IN LOWER-LATITUDES, IF ANY, WILL LIKELY
GENERALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-SYNOPTIC DEVELOPMENTS YET TO EVOLVE
AND OF RATHER LOW PREDICTABILITY AT THIS TIME RANGE.
..KERR.. 07/03/2026
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