159
FNUS21 KWNS 031543
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2026
VALID 031700Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN
COLORADO...
THE ELEVATED/CRITICAL AREAS WERE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE MOST RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS LOOK TO
EXTEND DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY, SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
MOVING INTO/OVER PORTIONS OF COLORADO, WHICH ALONG WITH THE VERY DRY
AND BREEZY LOW LEVELS, DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, AND ACTIVE LARGE
FIRES COULD RESULT IN DEEP PYROCONVECTION. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK, AND PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..NAUSLAR.. 07/03/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1258 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREATER FOUR CORNERS REGION. EARLY-MORNING
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES AS OF 06 UTC.
THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY AS SOME DEGREE OF
SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS AZ/NM IN THE WAKE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY, AFTERNOON RH MINIMUMS WILL LIKELY
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE, COUPLED WITH MODEST ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WILL PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN
CO. THE RESULTING MASS RESPONSE WILL YIELD A SWATH OF 15-20 MPH
WINDS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. 7-DAY METEOGRAMS FROM EASTERN
UT AND WESTERN CO DEPICT SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH IN RECENT DAYS UNDER A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
REGIME. BASED ON LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, A REPEAT OF THESE
CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY TODAY AND WARRANTS MAINTAINING CRITICAL
HIGHLIGHTS (ESPECIALLY GIVEN ONGOING FIRE ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION).
..DRY THUNDERSTORMS
00 UTC RAOBS FROM LKN, SLC, AND RIW ALL SAMPLED STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SOME DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. FURTHER ASCENT/COOLING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL COOLING/MOISTENING, LOW-LEVEL HEATING, AND
PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 0.4 TO 0.6 INCHES SHOULD RESULT IN THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT FUEL ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW ERC VALUES GENERALLY BELOW THE 80TH PERCENTILE,
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT FUELS MAY NOT BE OVERLY RECEPTIVE TO LIGHTNING
STARTS. THIS, ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT SLOW (10-15 KNOT) STORM MOTIONS,
LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRY-LIGHTNING THREAT.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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