697
ACUS11 KWNS 031615
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031615
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-031815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHEAST WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 031615Z - 031815Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING
GUSTS AND HAIL. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE
THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND FAR
SOUTHERN WI AT MIDDAY. SO FAR, MEASURED GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN AROUND 30-35 MPH. HOWEVER, THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS HAS BEEN
MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE MORNING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RAPIDLY
WARMED INTO THE MID 80S AMID MID/UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS. THIS VERY
MOIST AIRMASS BENEATH MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS ALLOWING FOR
MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION, PROVIDING SUFFICIENT FUEL FOR
STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER, VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MODEST, WITH STRONG FLOW FOCUSED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
BETTER AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. FURTHERMORE,
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REMAINS LIMITED, RESULTING IN UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY BE THROUGH THE DAY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
TRAILING OUTFLOW INTO WESTERN/WEST-CENTRAL IL, AND ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR OVER NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHEAST WI. HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPS REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVEN NEBULOUS FORCING, BUT
SOME RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGEST STORMS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FORE POSSIBLE WATCH
ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
LAT...LON 42778935 42898895 43028815 42938767 42728746 42128736
41018755 40498817 40278910 40699082 41189090 41629055
42778935
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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