236
ACUS11 KWNS 031655
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031654
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-031900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 031654Z - 031900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- SOME OF WHICH MAY BE MARGINALLY
SEVERE -- ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HAVE
REACHED THE LOW 90S F, AND AS HEATING BEGINS TO REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. BEING BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER,
LOOSE CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLULAR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES, MODEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT, AND RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT STRONG, WET DOWNDRAFTS, WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATING
DOWNDRAFT CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS, THE SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE
CAN ALSO RESULT IN LOOSE ORGANIZATION ALONG INTERACTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. BOTH SCENARIOS COULD RESULT IN 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
SOME WIND DAMAGE. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL PULSE-CONVECTION NATURE AND
LACK OF CLEAR ORGANIZATION MECHANISMS LIMITS THE CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE COVERAGE. WHILE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES.
..HALBERT/HART.. 07/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...
LAT...LON 33848341 33298383 33208391 33178429 33118492 33088525
33108544 33238577 33398609 33588645 33898686 34298717
34808729 35268729 36258727 36728714 37148696 37208672
37098600 36958556 36688515 36278476 36018457 35878438
35708404 35688386 35638330 35678268 35598240 35378223
35118217 34858235 34628278 33848341
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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