348
ACUS02 KWNS 031734
SWODY2
SPC AC 031732
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2026
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
INTO MID ATLANTIC, AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA, WITH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 30 KT MIDLEVEL
WESTERLIES EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS PA/NJ. TO THE WEST, A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES RELATED TO THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST. RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
PLAINS REGION, AIDING DESTABILIZATION.
AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO MO,
IL, AND IN, WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEARBY. EASTERLY
WINDS NORTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE MOISTURE LEVELS
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO DEEPEN OVER
THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY, PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM VA INTO PA/NJ.
..PA...VA...MD...DE...NJ
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH TALL CAPE PROFILES AND 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE COMMON WITH 70S F
DEWPOINTS AND DAYTIME HEATING. STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SEVERAL AREAS,
INCLUDING SOUTHERN NY INTO PA AND OH, AND, WITHIN THE TROUGH VA INTO
PA/NJ.
CAMS GENERALLY SUGGEST SCATTERED CELLS DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON
OVER MUCH OF VA AND INTO PA, MD, DE AND NJ. SCATTERED WIND GUSTS OF
40-50 KT APPEAR LIKELY, WITH ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS. WEAK
WESTERLIES ALOFT MAY SUPPORT SLOW EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING CELLS.
..CO...NE...KS
SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO THE
FRONT RANGE, AS WELL AS WESTERN NE, DURING THE AFTERNOON BENEATH
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WHERE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL AID
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE HEATED AIR MASS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY
FAVOR A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL, INCLUDING NEAR THE
COLORADO SPRINGS AREA. ADDITION CELLS OR CLUSTERS MAY SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NE AND NORTHWEST KS, WITH DAMAGING
GUSTS POSSIBLE.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK MAY DEVELOP INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS AND
PERHAPS FAR NORTHERN OK LATE IN THE DAY. HERE, LOCALLY LARGER SRH
WILL EXIST NORTH OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW. INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S F AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S F. VEERING WIND WITH HEIGHT AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KT
SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS INITIALLY, WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DURING THE
EVENING, CAMS SUGGEST AN MCS MAY DEVELOP, DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS, INCLUDING THE WICHITA AREA, AND INTO NORTHERN
OK. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
..PARTS OF CENTRAL MO
CAM SIGNALS ARE MIXED WITH TIMING OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER, STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. DEPENDING ON LATER MODEL OUTPUT, THE SLIGHT RISK
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER INTO MO/I-70 CORRIDOR AS
PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.
..JEWELL.. 07/03/2026
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