275
ACUS11 KWNS 031808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031807
NEZ000-SDZ000-031830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1468
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON
VALID 031807Z - 031830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEAR THE
BLACK HILLS AND DEVELOP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. LARGE HAIL UP TO 2.5 INCHES AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS HAVE GRADUALLY
INTENSIFIED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN A MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOL ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF OVERNIGHT OUTFLOW, BUT STRONGER HEATING SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AMID SCATTERED CLOUDINESS. STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PER SPC MESOANALYSIS ARE AIDING IN 1500-2000
J/KG MUCAPE. MEANWHILE, STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 30-40 KT, WHICH WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DISCRETE CONVECTION. IT
IS UNCERTAIN HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE WITH SOUTHEAST EXTENT, BUT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY INCREASE ALONG OUTFLOW DRAPED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH COULD OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING WITH AN ACCOMPANYING INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE GUSTS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS EXPECTED SOON.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 44680402 45120378 45240319 45060230 44110113 43620072
43070093 42970239 43070365 43850404 44330402 44680402
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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