378
ACUS11 KWNS 031953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031952
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-032145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA
AND FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 031952Z - 032145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS THE
MID-MO VALLEY VICINITY. STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY 22-23Z.
LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES AND DAMAGING GUSTS TO 80 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
DISCUSSION...STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE
AND VICINITY NEAR MODIFYING OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION. A SWATH
OF MIDLEVEL CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. THIS
INDICATES STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE INSTABILITY AMID INCREASING
ASCENT ATOP WEAKENING MLCIN. AN 18Z RAOB FROM OAX SHOWED NEARLY 4000
J/KG MUCAPE WITH SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES ALREADY PRESENT. ONCE
CAPPING ERODES, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY QUICKLY OCCUR. INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A RISK OF VERY
LARGE HAIL TO NEAR BASEBALL SIZE. GIVEN LARGE INSTABILITY, DAMAGING
GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE RISK FOR SEVERE GUSTS MAY INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING IF UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS VIA SUFFICIENT
STORM CLUSTERING AND OUTFLOW CONSOLIDATION. WHILE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION TIMING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN, IT APPEARS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 39989894 40689911 41779855 42199744 42329619 42249578
41839545 41069508 40199544 39809603 39639722 39569808
39649851 39989894
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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