737
ACUS11 KWNS 032220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032219
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-040015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1476
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0519 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS...OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032219Z - 040015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS IN A CLUSTER OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FAR
SOUTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
ISOLATED FOR WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB LOW OVER THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, WITH AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ALONG THIS AXIS, THE RAP HAS MLCAPE IN
THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE, WHICH WILL FUEL THE CONVECTION FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREAD AT LIBERAL,
KANSAS IS 50 DEGREES F SUGGESTING THAT THE STORMS ARE VERY HIGH
BASED. IN SPITE OF THIS, THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, AND COULD EVENTUALLY
AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES/GLEASON.. 07/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 37320103 37320138 37210172 36900196 36650204 36290205
36000167 35940054 36119980 36429954 36959952 37219991
37310062 37320103
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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