144
ACUS11 KWNS 032256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032255
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-040100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1478
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MONTANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032255Z - 040100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE MARGINAL, AND ADDITIONAL WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN MONTANA, ALONG WHICH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.
NEAR THE CONVERGENCE AXIS, SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S F
AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED BY THE RAP IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. A
BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY, AND APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE GLASGOW
AND BILLINGS WSR-88D VWPS HAVE 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
IN ADDITION, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES/GLEASON.. 07/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 48680407 48890447 48970511 48960564 48670642 47990701
46920790 46360803 45750785 45450751 45250696 45120627
45110587 45080539 45150454 45580407 46450395 48240399
48680407
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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