662
ACUS11 KWNS 032338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032337
KSZ000-NEZ000-040130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 032337Z - 040130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.
A WEATHER WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB LOW OVER
THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN KANSAS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE AXIS ARE IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH THE
RAP SHOWING MLCAPE IN THE 3000 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE. AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP
AT DODGE CITY HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KNOTS WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN THE 1 TO 4 KM LAYER. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. SEVERE GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY
INTENSE SHORT LINE SEGMENT THAT CAN BECOME ORGANIZED.
..BROYLES/GLEASON.. 07/03/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38140144 37930148 37600127 37430082 37370025 37629928
38399840 38939754 39639717 39969749 40049812 40059867
40009925 39659994 39020063 38480118 38140144
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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