604
ACUS11 KWNS 040028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040027
NEZ000-SDZ000-040230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446...450...
VALID 040027Z - 040230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446, 450
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION...ON SURFACE ANALYSIS, AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS LOCATED FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA, ALONG WHICH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S F. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR
THIS AXIS OF CONVERGENCE, ALONG WHICH THE RAP HAS A CORRIDOR OF
MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION, THE NORTH PLATTE
AND RAPID CITY WSR-88D VWPS HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 45 TO 50 KNOT
RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING.
SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. SHORT INTENSE LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE GUSTS. THE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 07/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 42139945 42509964 43160013 43780065 44320145 44550203
44570259 44360335 44010390 43780397 43540385 43110319
42320245 41560190 41260125 41310063 41499990 41839956
42139945
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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