943
ACUS11 KWNS 040230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040229
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-040430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0929 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 040229Z - 040430Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN MAY POSE AN ISOLATED HAIL AND
SEVERE WIND THREAT THROUGH LATE EVENING. STORM
ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO
PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...THE EARLY STAGES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAVE BEEN
MONITORED ACROSS NORTHERN IN OVER THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES AS A MODEST
INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET AUGMENTS ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION IS LIKELY ELEVATED IN NATURE, BUT LATEST RAP/HRRR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT NEARLY UNINHIBITED MOST-UNSTABLE PARCELS
BETWEEN 925-850 MB WHERE ASCENT IS LIKELY BEING MAXIMIZED. AS SUCH,
FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY IN THE COMING HOURS.
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, COUPLED
WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR DESTRUCTIVE STORM INTERACTIONS, SUGGEST
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED AND/OR WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION
IS LOW. HOWEVER, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS WITHIN THE ZONE OF ASCENT, AND MUCAPE VALUES
REMAIN NEAR 2000 J/KG. THIS PARAMETER SPACE COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
TRANSIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF POSING A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN GENERAL, INCREASINGLY CLUSTERED STORM
MODES SHOULD MODULATE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT AND NEGATE THE NEED
FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.
..MOORE/GLEASON.. 07/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...
LAT...LON 41068469 41018504 40998658 41038676 41218693 41428699
41658695 41798682 41948664 42138646 42138517 42048486
41798462 41388457 41068469
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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