939
ACUS11 KWNS 040730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040730
IAZ000-040930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 040730Z - 040930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...A NOTABLE OUTFLOW SURGE HAS OCCURRED WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION NEAR DES MOINES, WHERE A 50 KT GUST WAS RECENTLY
OBSERVED. THIS CLUSTER MAY CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
THE SHORT TERM, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MODERATE BUOYANCY IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
THREAT FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS. THE LONGEVITY OF ANY SEVERE THREAT MAY TEND TO BE LIMITED
BY MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND THE INFLUENCE OF DECAYED CONVECTION
AND ATTENDANT LOW/MIDLEVEL DRYING APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST IA.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 07/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...
LAT...LON 41629367 41789220 41439159 40759186 40599283 40699355
40879362 41309385 41439396 41629367
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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