527
ACUS11 KWNS 041509
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041509
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-041745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 041509Z - 041745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST AND
EVENTUALLY INTENSIFY FURTHER AS IT DEVELOPS FROM KANSAS INTO
MISSOURI TODAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MOST PROBABLE THREAT.
DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH
ACROSS KS THIS MORNING, WITH SPORADIC SEVERE GUSTS STILL BEING
MEASURED. THIS EASTWARD SURGE IS NOW INTERACTING WITH A LEADING ZONE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST KS WHICH ARE MOSTLY ELEVATED ABOVE
COOLER OUTFLOW.
RECENT RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW A RELATIVELY STRONGER AREA OF STORMS
MOVING TOWARD THE EMPORIA KS AREA, WHICH IS RIGHT ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO
WEST-CENTRAL MO, AND A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS TO
THE SOUTH. THE 12Z SGF SOUNDING SHOW RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AND WHEN MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHEAST KS, YIELDS OVER 4000 J/KG MUCAPE.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK,
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY, WHICH WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS. AS SUCH, IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE MCS WILL PERSIST, AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
IF FURTHER STRENGTHENING OCCURS.
..JEWELL.. 07/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37419682 37779647 37999636 38089591 38329507 38609439
38849387 38769315 38439289 37739285 37239313 36959391
36869482 36959594 37139676 37419682
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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