041
ACUS02 KWNS 041704
SWODY2
SPC AC 041703
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
..MID-ATLANTIC
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ALONG A SAGGING
COLD FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS PA INTO NORTHERN
NJ/SOUTHEAST NY ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, LEE TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS VA. A HOT AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL RESIDE
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES, WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION, BUT AROUND 20-30 KT
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST. MODERATE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED
BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT CLUSTERING COULD OCCUR ALONG
THE SOUTHWARD-SAGGING COLD FRONT AND ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING
CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN VA INTO SOUTHEAST PA UNTIL
STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE EVENING.
SUFFICIENT CONSISTENCY AMONG DETERMINISTIC/CAMS AND AI/ML GUIDANCE
EXISTS REGARDING STORM COVERAGE TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO 30 PERCENT
WIND PROBABILITIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TN VALLEY
AN REMNANT/WEAKENING MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER OK OR AR
SUNDAY MORNING. AN MCV RELATED TO THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEY VICINITY THROUGH THE DAY.
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY/NORTH TEXAS INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATE-DAY
1/SATURDAY INTO EARLY DAY 2/SUNDAY MCS MAY ARC ACROSS THIS REGION.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COULD OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE MODEST WITH WESTWARD EXTENT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS, BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT, AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO MODESTLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
DAY, FOSTERING WEAK, BUT PERHAPS SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
TRANSIENT ORGANIZED CELLS/CLUSTERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FURTHER EAST, THE MCV WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR AMID A
VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS COULD FOSTER
POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING STORM CLUSTERS, AND
SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURSTS, LEADING TO A
BROAD EXPANSION OF THE MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY VICINITY.
..NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTH DAKOTA
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS MT INTO ND AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA GLANCES NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
STRETCH FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH SOUTHERN/EASTERN MT
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE,
BUT THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF MODEST
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MT, AND SOMEWHAT GREATER ACROSS WESTERN ND
WHERE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINALLY BETTER ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH. VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES, WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS ABOVE 700 MB WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES GREATER
THAN 30 KT, AND ORGANIZED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG GUSTS AND
ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
..LEITMAN.. 07/04/2026
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