166
ACUS11 KWNS 041736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041736
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-042000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL PA...EASTERN/CENTRAL
OH...AND FAR NORTHERN WV
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 041736Z - 042000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIDELY SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A WATCH IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS IS GRADUALLY DEEPENING ALONG A
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE, AND WITHIN A ZONE OF
BROADLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL OH.
CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING AMID LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THESE ZONES OF
MESOSCALE ASCENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, GIVEN AN UNCAPPED AIR
MASS. WHILE AROUND 20 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION, STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (SAMPLED BY EARLIER
12Z SOUNDINGS) AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND
CELLS. A WATCH IS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
..WEINMAN/HART.. 07/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 39887812 39737931 39748071 39708200 39698296 39968361
40368365 40668338 41238166 41688021 41907891 41917818
41587755 41037735 40407760 39887812
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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