557
ACUS11 KWNS 041821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041820
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-042115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH
PLAINS...FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 041820Z - 042115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM BEFORE 21Z ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE, AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY, WITH A FEW
GUSTS OVER 70 MPH EXPECTED. ISOLATED MARGINAL HAIL MAY OCCUR AS
WELL.
DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING PERSISTS WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGH, WITH
TOWERING CU ALREADY DEVELOPING. DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S F IN SOME AREAS, WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
QUALITY CONFIRMED BY SUBSTANTIAL CU BETWEEN CDS AND PVW.
MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER, WHICH WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS WEAK, HOWEVER, VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY
SUPPORT A FEW SHORT-DURATION, SOUTHWARD-MOVING CELLS. SUBSTANTIAL
OUTFLOW PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED AS STORMS INCREASE IN NUMBER, WITH
SEVERE OUTFLOW OF 60-70 MPH LIKELY IN SPOTS. SOME OF THE STRONGER
CORES MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AS WELL.
..JEWELL/HART.. 07/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33990168 33400337 33630380 34060388 34270357 35160206
35800117 36739993 36699964 36439949 35059993 34510041
33990168
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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