966
ACUS01 KWNS 041949
SWODY1
SPC AC 041948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID ATLANTIC...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
..SUMMARY
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSING
A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
..20Z UPDATE
A COLD-POOL-DRIVEN MCS, WITH A HISTORY OF MEASURED 50+ KT GUSTS AND
WIND DAMAGE, CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
MO. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE MODEST OVER THE OZARKS, A
PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO THE
ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA. THE MCS HAS LIKELY MAINTAINED ITS
INTENSITY THUS FAR BY RIDING THIS BOUNDARY AND INGESTING SOME
VORTICITY FOR BOOKEND VORTEX AND REAR-INFLOW JET MAINTENANCE. IT IS
UNCLEAR HOW LONG THIS MCS WILL REMAIN STRONG/ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
LACK OF AMBIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON
THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY EXCEEDING 90 F, AMID MID 70S F
DEWPOINTS, IS YIELDING A GRADIENT OF 2500-4500 J/KG SBCAPE, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SEVERE GUST THREAT FOR THIS MCS FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH, 30 PERCENT WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
ADDED AHEAD OF THE MCS.
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS, INCLUDING EARLY DEPICTIONS FROM WOFS OUTPUT,
SUGGESTS THAT AN MCS WILL QUICKLY SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AFTER INITIATING ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST INITIATION (GIVEN
THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND
FROM THE PREVIOUS MCS), AND SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING POTENTIAL, IT
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST WIND THREAT WILL EXIST INTO EAST-CENTRAL
OK. 30 PERCENT/CIG1 WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO THIS
REGION.
FIVE PERCENT HAIL PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HERE, MRMS MOSAIC MESH DATA SUGGESTS THAT
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALREADY BE FALLING WITH THE MORE ROBUST
STORMS OVER NORTHERN PA. FURTHERMORE, STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
GRAZING THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, CONTRIBUTING TO 30-40 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AMID 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE, WHICH SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED HAIL THREAT.
OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS DAMAGING TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GUSTS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MOSTLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK TO
ACCOUNT FOR GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND OBSERVATIONS.
..SQUITIERI.. 07/04/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1101 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026/
..MID ATLANTIC
A HOT SUMMER DAY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60-LOWER 70S F. FULL SUN WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND HIGH CAPE VALUES BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST
MID-LEVEL FLOW. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
PA/VA/NJ/DE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PARAMETERS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURST WINDS IN THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS.
..PA/NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS
ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF ONTARIO/QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST US.
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POCKETS OF MODERATE CAPE WILL RESULT IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTHERN PA
INTO CENTRAL NY. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL
POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
.IL/IN
A REMNANT MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS ANALYZED OVER EASTERN IA,
WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF CHI. THE
AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS IL WILL BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE BY MID-AFTERNOON, LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS SUGGEST A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS
AS THESE STORMS ORGANIZE AND TRACK INTO IN BY EVENING.
..KS/MO
AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS AFFECTING EASTERN KS.
GIVEN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE EAST AND SUFFICIENT
MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION, IT IS PROBABLE THAT THIS CLUSTER WILL
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN MO WITH
A CONTINUED RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..KS/OK/AR
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLUSTER OF STORMS, NEW DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK. HIGH CAPE VALUES TO THE SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE THE ENH RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
HAIL AS STORMS BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND
INTO WESTERN AR THIS EVENING.
..TX PANHANDLE
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THE
STRONGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL FOR A
FEW HOURS.
..NORTHEAST CO
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN AT LEAST THE
40S OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE STRONG
HEATING/MIXING. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND DCVZ. A FEW SEVERE
CELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN RISK.
..MN/SD
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, A FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE STRONGEST CELLS MIGHT PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR GUSTY
WINDS.
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