778
ACUS11 KWNS 042050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042049
OKZ000-KSZ000-042315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 042049Z - 042315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
22-00Z. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
INCREASINGLY AGITATED BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS FIELD EVOLVING AT THE
NOSE OF A ROBUST HEAT AXIS EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST OK. ADDITIONAL
DEEPENING CUMULUS IS EVIDENT ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THESE ZONES OF MESOSCALE ASCENT.
THE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A WARM/MOIST PBL
(LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS) BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (SAMPLED BY
THE DDC 18Z SOUNDING). THE RESULTANT STRONG SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY
AND AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR (WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE) WILL INITIALLY PROMOTE SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. WHILE UNCERTAIN,
A TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT WITH ANY BOUNDARY/STORM
INTERACTIONS. WITH TIME, INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND CONGEALING
COLD POOLS SHOULD PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ORGANIZED CLUSTERS,
WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR SCATTERED SEVERE/DAMAGING GUSTS WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. A WATCH IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
..WEINMAN/HART.. 07/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 35909567 35739628 35659703 35709801 35909890 36279943
36699957 36979945 37219919 37459835 37679589 37539539
37229511 36639504 36209520 35909567
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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