559
ACUS11 KWNS 042113
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042113
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-042215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1498
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0413 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 042113Z - 042215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...MULTIPLE INSTANCES OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER AND LONGER LASTING STORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THEIR
MATURE STAGE. A WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED PENDING GREATER STORM
COVERAGE.
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE MULTICELLS AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH AN INSTANCE OF 2+ INCH
DIAMETER HAIL RECENTLY REPORTED IN KEITH COUNTY, NE. THESE STORMS
ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ALIGNED FROM
WESTERN NE INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN CO, AMID APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY
(1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE), BUT RELATIVELY POOR VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GIVEN THE CURRENT SHEAR PROFILE, IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD AND
LONG-LASTING ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE. NONETHELESS, 8+ C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WHERE
STORMS ARE ALREADY PRESENT, SUGGESTS THAT A SEVERE THREAT MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH, A WW ISSUANCE IS
POSSIBLE IF STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
..SQUITIERI/GLEASON.. 07/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40990497 41230415 41280353 41410294 41910236 42360170
42710099 42710034 42380001 41979994 41410016 40870066
40470142 40210215 40120292 40080351 40060410 40250461
40990497
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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