583
ACUS11 KWNS 042156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042156
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-050000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1499
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 454...
VALID 042156Z - 050000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 454
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE COMING HOURS AS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS
EXITS EASTERN MISSOURI. HOWEVER, THE NEED FOR DOWNSTREAM WATCH
ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A VERY MODEST KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM KLSX SHOWS A LOOSELY
ORGANIZED, AND PREDOMINANTLY OUTFLOW DOMINANT, MCS PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN MO AND INTO FAR WESTERN IL. WIND GUSTS OVER THE PAST
HOUR HAVE MOSTLY BEEN IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE, BUT VELOCITY IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW EMBEDDED SWATHS OF STRONGER WINDS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. DOWNSTREAM, CLUSTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
PERCOLATE ACROSS SOUTHERN IL WITHIN THE REGIONAL BUOYANCY MAXIMUM.
HOWEVER, REGIONAL VWPS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LIMITED FLOW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE COLUMN, WHICH IS RESULTING IN OUTFLOW-DOMINANT
CONVECTION WITH LIMITED INTENSITIES. CONSEQUENTLY, CONFIDENCE IS
LIMITED THAT THE ONGOING MCS WILL POSE A SUBSTANTIAL AND/OR
WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT DOWNSTREAM AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IL.
SIMILARLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN.
THAT SAID, THE FAVORABLE BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRANSIENT AND LOCALIZED SWATHS OF STRONG (TO PERHAPS SEVERE)
DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.
..MOORE.. 07/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 37439086 37879032 38369004 38809003 39019001 39168962
39258758 39088732 38828725 38458728 38108745 37708781
37358833 37268853 37439086
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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