765
ACUS11 KWNS 042207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042207
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-042330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 042207Z - 042330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNSET, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
MARGINAL FOR A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG A COUPLE OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN MN, AND ALONG-SOUTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SURFACE
TROUGH INTO NORTHEAST SD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MIDLEVEL
TROUGH BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHEAST SD, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHEAST SD ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARIES. VERTICAL SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER MARGINS FOR
ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT,
WITH SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. SINCE STORM INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION ARE UNLIKELY TO INCREASE FROM WHAT IS OBSERVED NOW, A
WATCH IS LIKELY NOT NECESSARY.
..THOMPSON/GLEASON.. 07/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 46349597 45989564 45749492 45979371 45779338 45539348
44899510 44489553 43969572 43919594 44829671 44939841
44949900 45259927 45779916 46089852 46089845 46019772
45749737 45609691 45739645 46249628 46349597
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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