717
ACUS11 KWNS 042234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042234
OKZ000-050000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460...
VALID 042234Z - 050000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...DEVELOPING STORM CLUSTERS WILL POSE AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS OF 80+ MPH INTO THIS EVENING WHILE
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD.
DISCUSSION...TWO STORM CLUSTERS HAVE DEVELOPED - ONE NEAR THE
OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION IN SOUTHERN KS AND ANOTHER ALONG THE
FRONT IN NORTHWEST OK. NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG
THE FRONT BETWEEN THE TWO, WITH A LARGER CLUSTER POSSIBLY EVOLVING
THROUGH LATE EVENING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
NORTHERN OK. THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE CLUSTERS APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR HYBRID MICROBURSTS WITH DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES AND
LARGE BUOYANCY WITH HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
TO KEEP STORMS GOING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CLUSTER ORGANIZATION. AS A RESULT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
00Z IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OK, WHERE A FEW GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 80 MPH. ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONGEST/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL IN THE 1.5-2.5 INCH DIAMETER
RANGE.
..THOMPSON.. 07/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36979713 36809647 36619636 36249622 36139678 36009733
35769826 35859874 36049890 36249883 36649812 36939756
36979713
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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