089
ACUS11 KWNS 050220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050220
ARZ000-OKZ000-050315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1508
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0920 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460...
VALID 050220Z - 050315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE
THREAT FOR OCCASIONAL SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS/WIND DAMAGE INTO EAST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK, WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL OK WITH MERGING OUTFLOWS.
DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO STAY A FEW MILES AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY REFLECTIVITY BAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK, WITH THE
STRONGEST RECENT GUSTS IN THE 50-68 MPH RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST OK.
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BY RAIN-COOLED AIR FROM EARLIER STORMS IN AR, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE/SEVERE
GUSTS INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OK. FARTHER WEST, NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING INTO CENTRAL OK, ESPECIALLY WHERE A
SEPARATE OUTFLOW FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH THE MORE EAST-WEST
ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OK.
THERE WILL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL SEVERE GUSTS WITH
THIS WESTERN PART OF THE CLUSTER AS IT PROGRESSES INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL OK.
THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS
LARGELY CONFINED TO OK, WITH WEAKENING OF THE STORMS EXPECTED INTO
WESTERN AR AND BY THE TIME THE STORMS REACH THE RED RIVER. LOCAL
EXTENSIONS OF THE CURRENT WATCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT A NEW
DOWNSTREAM WATCH APPEARS UNNECESSARY.
..THOMPSON.. 07/05/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35629531 36479473 36319420 35999406 35359462 34829481
34409476 34139508 33989556 33999612 34119685 34399759
34629849 34839845 35259807 35349765 35349616 35629531
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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