302
FNUS21 KWNS 051541
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CDT SUN JUL 05 2026
VALID 051700Z - 061200Z
BOTH ISODRYT AREAS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND FORECAST GUIDANCE. THE ISODRYT AREA WAS EXPANDED SOUTH AND EAST
ALONG THE SIERRA AND INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AID FROM
TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND THUS TERRAIN INDUCED UPSLOPE FLOW, BUT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ISODRYT AREA FAVORED.
THE OTHER ISODRYT AREA WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND SHIFTED EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THROUGH
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COLORADO ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF EXPECTED WETTER
THUNDERSTORMS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO FAR
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN COLORADO AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
INDICATE LITTLE TO VERY LOW PROBABILITIES (<10%) OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREAS THAT WERE REMOVED. HOWEVER, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP PYROCONVECTION REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ISODRYT AREA ON ACTIVE LARGE WILDFIRES AS THE WILLOW FIRE PRODUCED
AT LEAST ONE PYROCB PULSE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT.
..NAUSLAR.. 07/05/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0108 AM CDT SUN JUL 05 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST. RECENT UPPER-AIR
ANALYSES SHOW STEADY AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
GREATER FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS. HOWEVER, VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL
CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH AN INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WEST.
..NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO OREGON AND NEVADA
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED IN WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG THE CA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN OR
THROUGH TODAY. A MODEST INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ATTENDANT TO
THE WAVE COUPLED WITH WEAK ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT ADEQUATE BUOYANCY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN CA INTO OR AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST NV/SOUTHWEST ID. VERY DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS NOTED
IN 00 UTC SOUNDINGS SHOULD MODULATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND FAVOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IS GREATEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN OR WHERE RECENT FUEL REPORTS SUGGEST FUELS ARE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY RECEPTIVE AND LIGHTNING IGNITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
..SOUTHWEST
EARLY-MORNING GOES PWAT ESTIMATES DEPICTS A PLUME OF 0.75-1.25 INCH
PWAT VALUES ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF THIS MOIST PLUME WILL SPREAD ACROSS AZ AND FAR WESTERN NM
THROUGH THE DAY WHERE LAPSE RATES REMAIN VERY STEEP FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH AROUND 6 KM BASED ON REGIONAL 00 UTC SOUNDINGS. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT MID-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTION BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WITH LCL HEIGHTS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3 KM,
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM EASTERN AZ INTO NM AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CO. CONFIDENCE IN DRY
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN AZ INTO
SOUTHWEST NM, BUT RECENT CAM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN CO TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT RANGE WHERE CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY DRY AND ACTIVE FIRES
HAVE BEEN ONGOING. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS THAT VERY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL AZ ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM, BUT ENSEMBLE SUPPORT REMAINS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A
WESTWARD EXPANSION.
..SOUTHERN MONTANA
ADDITIONAL DRY THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK UPPER PERTURBATIONS CREST
THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DESPITE A FAIRLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
SIGNAL IN LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING
DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS, RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD LIMIT FUEL
STATUS FOR THE TIME BEING.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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