017
ACUS02 KWNS 051732
SWODY2
SPC AC 051730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2026
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
..NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
WITHIN THE BASE OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SK/MB,
MODEST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND A BELT OF 40-KT MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD STRONG
BUOYANCY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS, COMBINED WITH AROUND 40 KT
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, WILL PROMOTE A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND
POSSIBLY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND
GUSTS.
..MID-ATLANTIC
IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD A MOIST AND STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE LIMITED DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND RELATED STORM ORGANIZATION, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CORES.
..LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AN EMBEDDED MIDLEVEL IMPULSE IN THE BASE OF A BROAD, POSITIVE-TILT
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. GENERALLY WEAK
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY, THOUGH STRONG SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL FAVOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
..WEINMAN.. 07/05/2026
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