552
ACUS03 KWNS 051930
SWODY3
SPC AC 051929
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR SCATTERED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ON TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST.
..NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST, A LOW-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RELATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS, GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG AN ENE/WSW-ORIENTED SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO SD AND NE.
WHILE THE DETAILS REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ARE UNCLEAR AND
WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY MESOSCALE FACTORS, A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE-STRONG SURFACE BASED BUOYANCY AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS
(40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR) WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
EASTWARD-SPREADING CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AN UPSCALE-GROWING CLUSTER OF STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SCATTERED DAMAGING GUSTS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SD
INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN -- POTENTIALLY AIDED BY AN EASTWARD-MOVING
SURFACE WAVE AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ.
..MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS
DIURNAL HEATING OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (2+ INCH PW) MAY PROMOTE
WET MICROBURSTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR AND NEBULOUS FORCING FOR ASCENT CAST
UNCERTAINTY ON THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK, AND SEVERE-WIND
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN WITHHELD AT THIS TIME.
..WEINMAN.. 07/05/2026
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