388
ACUS11 KWNS 051948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051947
NDZ000-052145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 051947Z - 052145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY 22Z. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE
STORMS THROUGH EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONG HEATING IN
THE UPPER 80 TO LOW 90S ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL ND. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH A PLUME OF 60S
DEWPOINTS HAS SPREAD NORTH AND WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES INTO NORTHEAST MT. STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
SUPPORTING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION, WHILE INCREASING MID/UPPER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED ACROSS WESTERN ND AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES ARE
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION, AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/05/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 49199934 48319995 47460113 47300305 47680331 48300299
49250214 49199934
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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