393
ACUS01 KWNS 051959
SWODY1
SPC AC 051957
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2026
VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN INTO NORTHERN
TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS MAY STILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST/NORTHWEST TEXAS.
..20Z UPDATE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (SEE BELOW) REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK. A
MESOVORTEX EMBEDDED WITHIN A MULTICELLULAR COMPLEX DEVELOPED A FEW
HOURS AGO AND PRODUCED A LOCALIZED SWATH OF INTENSE WINDS ALONG THE
OH/PA BORDER. A REPEAT OF SUCH ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PA GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY FOR ONGOING STORMS TO TRAVERSE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER MESOVORTEX IS TOO LOW FOR AN APPRECIABLE
MODIFICATION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..SQUITIERI.. 07/05/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1118 AM CDT SUN JUL 05 2026/
..MID ATLANTIC
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN OH/WV INTO PA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE OVERALL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, WITH CAPE, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND HEATING SHOWING
PARAMETERS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
NEVERTHELESS, PARTS OF NORTHERN VA INTO EASTERN PA AND NJ WILL SEE
STRONG HEATING ALL DAY WITH STORMS MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO MAXIMIZE LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS LATER TODAY. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN
ONGOING SLGT RISK AREA.
..GULF COAST STATES TO CAROLINAS
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND POCKETS OF MODERATE CAPE.
SCATTERED SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION
WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
..TX
FULL SUNSHINE IS NOTED OVER TX TODAY, WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. ALL CAM
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION, EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TX. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE
SUPERCELLULAR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL THROUGH THE EVENING AND SAG SOUTHWARD, WITH
A CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
..NORTHERN ND
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MT TODAY, WITH A DIFFUSE
SURFACE DRYLINE ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
..MT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MT AND SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
INVERTED-V PROFILES AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL POSE A
RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN A FEW OF THESE STORMS.
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