895
ACUS11 KWNS 060016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060016
TXZ000-060145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1517
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463...
VALID 060016Z - 060145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 02-03Z. SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF WW 463 MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED, BUT A NEW WATCH IS NOT LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...STORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW, INTO A REMAINING HOT AIR MASS WITH MODERATE
BUOYANCY AND VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE STORMS WILL
SPREAD SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH COUNTIES, WITH SOME SOUTHWARD
EXPANSION POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH OF
THE SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE/LARGER BUOYANCY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AROUND 02-03Z. THEREAFTER, WHILE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, THE WEAKENING CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING OF THE
COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE-GUST THREAT.
..THOMPSON.. 07/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 32560082 32470024 32519963 32629882 32469863 32049864
31649892 31509964 31440021 31520078 31710146 32080172
32390187 32720186 32840168 32840132 32560082
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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