342
ACUS01 KWNS 060101
SWODY1
SPC AC 060100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2026
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS MAY STILL OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA.
..WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS HAS EVOLVED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TX BIG
COUNTRY INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WITH GUSTS OF 62 AND 75 MPH
REPORTED WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE INFLOW AIR MASS
REMAINS HOT AND RELATIVELY MOIST WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATING MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THE KFDR VWP INDICATES A BELT
OF 30-40 KT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 4-6 KM AGL LAYER, WHICH IS LIKELY
ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS, WHEN COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A
RELATIVELY DEEP AND WELL-MIXED PBL, WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND SPORADIC HAIL OCCURRENCES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE MCS CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY.
FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM DETAILS, SEE MCD 1517.
..MID-ATLANTIC
EARLIER, MORE DISCRETE STORMS HAVE GRADUALLY EVOLVED INTO A
LARGER-SCALE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEAST PA WITH THAT SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST ALONG A SUBTLE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL NJ.
ADDITIONAL STORM CLUSTERING IS NOTED FARTHER SOUTH, NEAR BALTIMORE,
WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL CONSOLIDATION OF
STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO THE DE
RIVER VALLEY. THE 00Z IAD SAMPLED A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS, WHICH FEATURED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 1-1.5 KM
AGL. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK, THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT EPISODIC COLD-POOL ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM INFORMATION, SEE MCD 1518.
..MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE FRONT FROM WESTERN ND INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MT, WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOCALLY HIGHER
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHWEST ND
INTO NORTHEAST MT. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS
EVENING TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY IN WESTERN ND AMIDST A WARMER
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z BIS
SOUNDING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT
SOME MOISTENING LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT; HOWEVER, INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY BECOME MORE PROHIBITIVE TO SURFACE-BASED
STORM SUSTENANCE UPON NIGHTFALL. NONETHELESS, ISOLATED OCCURRENCES
OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE ONGOING
STORMS FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
FARTHER WEST, A SEPARATE THUNDERSTORM REGIME IS ONGOING TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN CENTRAL MT. THE SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST A
FEW OF THOSE STORMS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING WITH ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE.
..MEAD.. 07/06/2026
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