349
ACUS11 KWNS 060110
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060110
MTZ000-060315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1519
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0810 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MONTANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 060110Z - 060315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...HIGH-BASED STORMS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA MAY SEE
SOME UPTICK IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY APPROACH A
REGIONAL BUOYANCY MAXIMUM. HOWEVER, THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING
AND ANTECEDENT INHIBITION DOWNSTREAM CAST UNCERTAINTY ON THIS
SCENARIO.
DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES, HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL MT HAS EXPERIENCED AN UPTICK IN LIGHTNING
COUNTS INDICATIVE OF A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TREND. THIS MAY BE
ATTRIBUTABLE TO STORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MORE
BUOYANT AIR MASS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 50S, INCREASING INTO
THE LOW 60S INTO NORTHEAST MT ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. BASED ON MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES AND 00 UTC GGW AND BIS RAOBS,
THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000
J/KG WITHIN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR AS CONVECTION MIGRATES FURTHER
INTO THIS AIR MASS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-45 KNOTS AS BUOYANCY PROFILES AND CONVECTION DEEPEN,
RESULTING IN INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND AN UPTICK IN SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, ANALYSES ALSO DEPICT INCREASING MLCIN IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER
WITH THE COMING ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. RECENT HRRR/RRFS
TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINTS AT THIS POTENTIAL, BUT HAS BEEN
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH WIND FORECASTS SO FAR ACROSS THIS REGION AND
ONLY GIVES A 30-50% CHANCE FOR SEVERE GUSTS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
THIS LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO; WATCH ISSUANCE SEEMS
IMPROBABLE AT THIS TIME.
..MOORE/GLEASON.. 07/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 45840729 45720762 45750777 46000792 46530814 46720837
46830880 46910918 47090961 47340992 47620974 47820922
47900815 48160667 48740516 48710475 48550441 48250412
47900409 47450407 46670411 46160442 45840729
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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