859
ACUS11 KWNS 060238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060238
NDZ000-060415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1520
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 464...
VALID 060238Z - 060415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 464
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 04 UTC, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD STEADILY
DIMINISH WITH TIME.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS WESTERN ND, AND CONTINUOUS CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING HAS BEEN GRADUALLY ERODING MLCAPE BASED ON MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES. DESPITE THIS, A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO BRIEFLY
INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LIMITS BASED ON MRMS MESH ESTIMATES.
ADDITIONALLY, AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
WITH SOME OF THE COLLAPSING CONVECTION. RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 23 HAS MAINTAINED SOME DEGREE OF
BUOYANCY, WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO ALLOW OCCASIONAL/ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER,
CONTINUED OVERTURNING AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD FURTHER
DIMINISH BUOYANCY AND STEADILY REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION. TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF WW 464 BEYOND THE SCHEDULED 04 UTC
EXPIRATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.
..MOORE.. 07/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BIS...
LAT...LON 47440325 48420210 48740160 48810105 48720067 48380032
48110029 46880185 46780251 46860295 47150327 47440325
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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