164
ACUS48 KWNS 060902
SWOD48
SPC AC 060900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT MON JUL 06 2026
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
..DISCUSSION
MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE EVOLUTION OF AN
INCREASINGLY PROMINENT MID/UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO
VALLEY AND PLATEAU LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH MAY
CONTINUE EXPANDING AND ENCOMPASSING A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE
INTERIOR U.S. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOW FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS
BUILDS REMAINS UNCLEAR; HOWEVER, A PLUME OF VERY WARM ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING ON STRENGTHENING FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONALLY CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
IT APPEARS THAT THIS COULD FOCUS ANYWHERE FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER VICINITY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK (THE DAY 8-9 TIME FRAME), IN
PARTICULAR, AT LEAST SOME OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE RIDGE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG CYCLOGENESIS,
WHICH COULD PROMOTE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME AND
MODEL SPREAD/DISCREPANCIES, SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD
CHANGE SOMETIME IN LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES FOR THIS PERIOD.
..KERR.. 07/06/2026
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