845
ACUS11 KWNS 061827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061827
VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-062100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1523
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 061827Z - 062100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT IS UNCLEAR IF A WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR TERM.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN VA ,
WITH MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD PROMOTE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS THESE STORMS ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO PARTS
OF CENTRAL VA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NC, STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASING BUOYANCY WILL PROMOTE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS --
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT EVOLVE. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE GREATER RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO SMALL CLUSTERS.
THEREFORE, THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN IN THE NEAR TERM,
THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
..WEINMAN/HART.. 07/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 36578011 37117958 37627924 38217893 38617844 38837801
38847750 38567704 38247687 37587689 36607735 35727817
35427881 35437971 35738020 36138031 36578011
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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