391
ACUS01 KWNS 061950
SWODY1
SPC AC 061948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2026
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE ARKLATEX...AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
IN THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, CAROLINAS, AND ARKLATEX REGIONS.
..20Z UPDATE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (SEE BELOW) REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE THUNDER AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO REFLECT THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
..SQUITIERI.. 07/06/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1128 AM CDT MON JUL 06 2026/
..MN/ND
MORNING WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS ND. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN MN
INTO EASTERN ND. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70F WILL YIELD MLCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING, SPREADING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL MN AND EASTERN SD.
..MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS REGION TODAY. VERTICAL SHEAR AND
STEERING FLOW IS RATHER WEAK, SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE POORLY
ORGANIZED. HOWEVER, STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL CAPE IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SUGGEST THAT
THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL POSE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER A
RELATIVELY BROAD AREA AGAIN TODAY.
..AR/LA/OK/TX
STRONG HEATING AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY OVER MUCH OF AR, SOUTHEAST OK,
NORTHEAST TX, AND NORTHERN LA. THIS IS NEAR A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WHERE LAPSE RATES AND MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
ROBUST UP/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAVE OPTED FOR
A SMALL SLGT RISK FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA WHERE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
APPEARS HIGHEST.
..NORTHERN UT INTO WY
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED FAST-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN UT, MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHERN WY. THE STRONGEST OF THESE CELLS WILL POSE A RISK OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
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