710
ACUS11 KWNS 062012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062011
SDZ000-NEZ000-062215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1524
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 062011Z - 062215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
AND SEVERE WINDS. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVERLY HIGH, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT IN
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. STRONG HEATING OF AN UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S F DEWPOINT AIRMASS HAS MOSTLY ERODED MLCIN FASTER THAN MOST
EARLIER GUIDANCE HAD PREDICTED. THE OBSERVED 18Z ABR SOUNDING SHOWED
AN 8.4 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE, THOUGH SOME INHIBITION REMAINS
WHEN MODIFYING WITH CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE IMPACTS OF
REMAINING MLCIN ARE APPARENT GIVEN THAT STORMS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO
INTENSIFY VERY QUICKLY. WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING, HOWEVER,
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THESE AREAS ARE MUCH FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN CANADA
AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE SUBTLY RISING AS WELL. THE LESS THAN IDEAL
LARGE-SCALE LIFT ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH 20-25 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. SHOULD ENOUGH CLUSTERING OCCUR, A WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED.
..WENDT/HART.. 07/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 42890173 44949905 45549801 45459749 44599747 43259917
42660054 42540148 42660175 42890173
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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