451
ACUS11 KWNS 062018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062017
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-062245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AR...NORTHERN LA...AND
NORTHEAST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 062017Z - 062245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE RISK OF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED, AND A WATCH COULD EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED.
DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECEDING A COMPACT
MIDLEVEL LOW/VORT MAX IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL AR, WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO CENTRAL AR. WITHIN THIS ZONE,
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF A MOIST PBL (LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS) BENEATH RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (SAMPLED BY
SHV 18Z SOUNDING) IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE.
THIS INCREASING BUOYANCY AND DIURNALLY STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT EVOLVE. GIVEN WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DISORGANIZED/OUTFLOW DOMINANT. HOWEVER, THE
AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY AND FOCUSED AREA OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT COULD
PROMOTE SEVERAL LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF SCATTERED
DAMAGING WINDS AND SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL WITH TIME.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS (ESPECIALLY A TENDENCY FOR CLUSTERING) ARE BEING
MONITORED, AND A WATCH COULD EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA.
..WEINMAN/HART.. 07/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
LAT...LON 32039275 31969348 32219477 32459527 32809557 33389551
33719532 34149485 34889418 35389339 35439263 35189192
34669152 33819146 33239150 32369217 32039275
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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