438
ACUS11 KWNS 062159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062158
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-070000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO EASTERN OHIO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 062158Z - 070000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE IN THE COMING HOURS AS
BOUNDARIES BEGIN TO COLLIDE, AND THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY TRANSIENT AND ISOLATED TO PRECLUDE WATCH
ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
TRIO OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PA AND INTO FAR
EASTERN OH. CONVECTION ONGOING ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES HAS LARGELY
DEMONSTRATED PULSE BEHAVIOR WITH POOR ORGANIZATION AND SHORT
DURATIONS - LARGELY OWING TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT AS SAMPLED BY REGIONAL
VWPS. HOWEVER, SOME CLUSTERING HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
PA. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BOUNDARY COLLISIONS MAY PROMOTE AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS FAR EASTERN OH INTO WESTERN
PA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND MLCAPE
VALUES ARE NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG. THE MEAGER DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MOSTLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION, BUT A FEW
MORE INTENSE (ALBEIT TRANSIENT) THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SPORADIC STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS (MOST
LIKELY 40-60 MPH). SOME DEGREE OF CLUSTERING AND COLD POOL
AMALGAMATION APPEARS POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY PROMOTE MORE CONCENTRATED
CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED.
..MOORE.. 07/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41008131 41558007 41867902 41897849 41527798 41107794
40617784 40177764 39757728 39407738 39307782 39437857
39597911 39937967 40188035 40468100 40638130 41008131
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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