687
ACUS11 KWNS 062211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062210
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-070045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1527
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST SD...WEST-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 062210Z - 070045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE WITH TIME AND PERHAPS THIS BEGINS AS EARLY AS
6PM-8PM CDT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE-SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH A THIN CIRRUS SHIELD LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER SOUTHEAST ND. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OVER EASTERN SD AND WEST-CENTRAL MN SHOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWER 70S DEG F DEWPOINTS. THE 20Z MODEL RUN
OF THE RAP SEEMS ADEQUATELY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
AND IT SHOWS 4000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH PW IN EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES.
FAIRLY WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO WESTERLY AND 20-KT IN
THE 500-300 MB LAYER AND THIS IS SUPPORTING AROUND 25-KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STORMS WILL
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH #466 NEAR THE ND-SD-MN BORDER REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST SD INTO WEST-CENTRAL
MN THIS EVENING. CONTINGENT ON STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING, IT
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SEVERE-STORM RISK WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING THIS EVENING. IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR REGARDING STORM EVOLUTION AND THE NEED FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH DUE IN PART TO STORM COVERAGE AND PROPENSITY FOR
SEVERE HAIL/WIND, BUT MESOSCALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
..SMITH/GLEASON.. 07/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 45149869 45539856 45889824 46179517 46059461 45809443
45469442 45059477 44649616 44399803 44679854 45149869
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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