851
ACUS11 KWNS 062302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062302
MNZ000-NDZ000-070000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST ND...NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 466...
VALID 062302Z - 070000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 466
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE WIND RISK WILL PROBABLY INCREASE IF
ADDITIONAL STORM MERGERS OCCUR AND A SEVERE CLUSTER EVOLVES OVER
NORTHERN MN.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR MOSAIC COMPOSITE SHOWS A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST ND INTO
NORTHERN MN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE ONGOING STORM ACTIVITY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S DEG F, WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE 70S IN SOUTHEAST ND TO THE MID 60S IN
NORTHERN MN. THE GLANCING OF A CANADIAN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED IMPETUS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTENANCE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.
LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY FOCUS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS LOCATED TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE NORTHERN MN CLUSTERING OF STORMS, AND ALSO
AS STORMS MATURE OVER SOUTHEAST ND INTO WESTERN MN THIS EVENING.
MRMS MESH HAS MOSTLY SHOWN REMOTELY-SENSED HAIL DIAMETER VALUES 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER, LARGER HAIL IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER
RANGE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A SUPERCELL. THE SEVERE-WIND THREAT
WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AS FURTHER MERGING OF OUTFLOW AND
STORM CLUSTERING EVOLVES DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN ADEQUATELY STEEP
0-3 KM LAPSE RATES WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PW, SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE
WATER-LOADED CORES MAY YIELD A RISK FOR 60-75 MPH GUSTS.
..SMITH.. 07/06/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON 46509779 47879639 48599463 48599382 48299326 47749361
46049644 45959702 46029766 46509779
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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