171
ACUS48 KWNS 070902
SWOD48
SPC AC 070900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2026
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
..DISCUSSION
MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE EVOLUTION OF AN
INCREASINGLY PROMINENT MID/UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO
VALLEY AND PLATEAU LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING AND ENCOMPASSING A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE INTERIOR U.S. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS AN
EVOLVING LARGER-SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS AND SOUTHEAST OF
HUDSON BAY. WHILE THERE APPEARS RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD WITHIN AND
AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUT CONCERNING THIS LARGER-SCALE
EVOLUTION, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONCERNING THE MIGRATION OF
ONE PARTICULARLY NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN, IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT A PLUME OF VERY WARM
ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR WILL ADVECT ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A
BELT OF INTENSIFYING FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. AS IT DOES, COUPLED WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING, THIS TYPE OF REGIME COULD SUPPORT THE PERIODIC
EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZING CLUSTERS, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING ONE OR TWO
POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED, ACCOMPANIED BY SWATHS OF DAMAGING SURFACE
GUSTS.
IT APPEARS THAT THIS COULD FOCUS ANYWHERE FROM NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER VICINITY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, DO TO LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYNOPTIC DEVELOPMENTS, AND THE GENERALLY LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MESOSCALE SYSTEMS, IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME AT
THIS EXTENDED RANGE, SEVERE PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR LESS THAN 15
PERCENT. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS, THIS COULD CHANGE IN
LATER OUTLOOKS FOR THIS PERIOD.
..KERR.. 07/07/2026
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