175
ACUS11 KWNS 071723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071722
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-071845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT TUE JUL 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 071722Z - 071845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE, SO A WW ISSUANCE IS
NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...PULSE-CELLULAR STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED TO THE
LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS GIVEN STRONG HEATING, NOTED BY
OBSERVATIONS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 F AMID LOWS
70S F DEWPOINTS. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF MESOANALYSES SHOW RAPID
STEEPENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES (ALREADY OVER 8 C/KM),
WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING UP TO 2500 J/KG MLCAPE AND MINIMAL MLCINH
DESPITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT WET
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. NONETHELESS,
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT, WITH A WW ISSUANCE NOT ANTICIPATED.
..SQUITIERI/HART.. 07/07/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34137865 33487943 33158041 33668098 34748206 35238238
35618227 36118178 36868065 37297971 37457896 36977835
36297822 35567832 34137865
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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